Trade ban against Iran, according to the trade winds or revenge after return to the market worries, analysts say, diversified pattern of crude oil imports in China, namely turn due to the geopolitical consideration before a long import policy will not change.
Ten years ago, most of China's crude oil imports from the Middle East, especially in Saudi Arabia and Iran. Although the VLCC combined and other large oil tanker only belong to medium transport, but also make them busy enough. But as Iran's trade ban, lead to the Middle East, the second largest oil exporter of crude oil output sharply cut in half. China did not participate in the ban, but the number of crude oil imports from Iran are falling, and Angola "promotion" as it's second largest oil suppliers.
According to the U.S. energy information administration (EIA), 2014 west African countries accounted for 14% of China's oil demand. The supply still "crowned" the Saudi Arabia, 16% (less than 19% in 2013); Iran has dropped to fifth, is only 9%, less than Russia, Iraq and Oman. Over the past five years, China's growing import channels, such as Congo, Colombia, countries such as Brazil and south Sudan has become its suppliers.
These new long-distance lines in the absorption of oil tanker, and cause a tighter pattern, has played an important role, and helping to rate level up to the recent highs. But if Iran's trade ban has been revoked, the situation will change?
Some oil tanker industry to suggest that, if on Iran's trade bans lifted, what will happen? China will can not stand the temptation and reconsider Iran, then sacrifice is growing long supply of goods?
Oil industry experts in the "trade winds" asked about these issues, this is unlikely to happen. First of all, the main exporting countries such as Angola in the past five years have remained stable in productivity, will not easily give up market share - especially to buy half of its products of "big customer" China. Analysts also pointed out that the other kept emerging in Africa and South America oil producers business scale, it is in the interests of China as vested interests.
At present, the Chinese government through its state-owned oil companies, has become the angolan oil production and oil and other emerging market infrastructure, the largest investor. , for example, it has spent billions of dollars and Angola's state oil company (Sonangol) joint development projects, the other is by "loans for oil" other domestic trading capital projects. In Angola, because of a drop in oil prices and money is tight, the Chinese are coming to the "blood transfusion". Likewise, China is the largest investor in south Sudan's oil industry is said to be accumulated to invest more than $12 billion over the past six years. In addition, the country has poured money to Brazil and Colombia's infrastructure projects.
This fully shows that China is on a number of emerging markets through direct or indirect investment in the oil and gas industry, so as to maintain the pattern of diversity in the crude oil imports. So, given the scope and scale the country's investment, it is bound to maintain the level of imports, even Iran's oil price again low, will not easily change "beginner's mind.
According to
this judgment, crude oil ship in the foreseeable future will not be lost to the
long-distance transportation of opportunity.
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